Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1749 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Yesterday

UA 1749 · SFO → OGG

departs 4:40 PM PT · arrives 7:17 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1749 · SFO → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?