Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1818 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 1818 · IAH → MSP

departs 2:35 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1818 · IAH → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?