Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2351 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Yesterday

UA 2351 · ORD → TUL

departs 8:01 PM CT · arrives 10:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2351 · ORD → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?