Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2459 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 2459 · DEN → YYC

departs 11:22 AM MT · arrives 2:03 PM MDT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYC?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at YYC that day

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into YYC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYC (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2459 · DEN → YYC

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYC?