Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2626 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

UA 2626 · SFO → YYC

departs 8:29 AM PT · arrives 12:11 PM MDT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYC?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of snow forecast at YYC that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Arrivals into YYC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2626 · SFO → YYC

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYC?