Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2626 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

UA 2626 · SFO → YYC

departs 8:37 AM PT · arrives 12:38 PM MDT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at YYC more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYC?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Arrivals into YYC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2626 · SFO → YYC

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYC?