Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 309 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

UA 309 · ORD → DFW

departs 2:16 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 309 · ORD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?