Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 309 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 309 · ORD → DFW

departs 2:09 PM CT · arrives 4:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

DFW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 309 · ORD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?