UA 368 · DCA → SFO

took off 6:14 PM ET · landed 8:47 PM PT (scheduled 5:59 PM ET → 8:55 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 368 · DCA → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?