Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 886 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 886 · EWR → LIM

departs 2:31 PM ET · arrives 9:29 PM -05

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at LIM more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIM?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIM

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 886 · EWR → LIM

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIM?