Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR EUROPA · FLIGHT UX 98 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UX 98 · MIA → MAD

departs 9:38 PM ET · arrives 11:08 AM CET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MAD?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,729 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.41 in

MAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UX 98 · MIA → MAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAD?