VB 651 · AUS → MTY

departs 2:55 PM CT · arrives 3:27 PM CST

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MTY?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MTY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MTY (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

VB 651 · AUS → MTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MTY?