Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VIVA AEROBUS · FLIGHT VB 651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
VB 651 · AUS → MTY
departs 2:59 PM CT · arrives 3:28 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28 16%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MTY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MTY?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Arrivals into MTY at that hour are usually not late
↓
MTY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MTY (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.