Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 1457 · DCA → DAL
departs 4:40 PM ET · arrives 6:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.