WN 1473 · DAL → SMF

took off 7:56 PM CT · expected to land 9:08 PM PT (scheduled 7:23 PM CT → 9:09 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↑ 7pm departures from DAL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1473 · DAL → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?