Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1473 · DAL → TPA
departs 1:10 PM CT · arrives 4:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/31
Tue 11/3 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DAL that day
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.07 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.