Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1513
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 1513 · DCA → MSY
departs 11:57 AM ET · arrives 1:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.