Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2031
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2031 · HOU → DCA
departs 2:11 PM CT · arrives 6:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 32%
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.02 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.