Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 254
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 254 · MCO → DCA
departs 1:48 PM ET · arrives 4:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.