Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2642
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2642 · AUS → MSP
departs 3:10 PM CT · arrives 5:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.01 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.