Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 266
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 266 · AUS → DCA
departs 12:48 PM CT · arrives 4:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 19%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.