Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2797
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2797 · MCO → SAT
departs 7:56 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 16%
Mon 11/2 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.