Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2797
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 2797 · MCO → SAT
departs 9:51 PM ET · arrives 11:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 10/28 35%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 16%
Mon 11/2 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.