WN 2868 · MDW → DAL

took off 9:40 PM CT · landed 11:25 PM CT (scheduled 9:23 PM CT → 11:38 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DAL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2868 · MDW → DAL

Odds over time

How late did it get to DAL?