Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3216 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, October 28

WN 3216 · OGG → HNL

took off 2:16 PM HT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 1:46 PM HT → 2:36 PM HT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ This flight has been late 6% of the time recently

↓ OGG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.39 in

HNL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3216 · OGG → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?