Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 3861 · SJU → MCO
departs 12:45 PM AT · arrives 3:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±7 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.