Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 3861 · SJU → MCO
departs 12:35 PM AT · arrives 3:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.