Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4130 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, October 28

WN 4130 · STL → TPA

took off 7:00 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:41 PM CT → 10:04 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4130 · STL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?