WN 4271 · SAN → SMF

took off 5:16 PM PT · landed 6:22 PM PT (scheduled 4:51 PM PT → 6:27 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4271 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?