WN 458 · MCO → MSY

took off 5:12 PM ET · landed 5:33 PM CT (scheduled 4:48 PM ET → 5:36 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSY?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MCO that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 458 · MCO → MSY

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSY?