Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4614
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4614 · MSP → BNA
departs 1:45 PM CT · arrives 3:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30 30%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.19 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.