WN 4964 · STL → MCI

took off 9:06 PM CT · landed 9:48 PM CT (scheduled 8:55 PM CT → 10:14 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4964 · STL → MCI

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCI?