Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4974
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4974 · BWI → RSW
departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 5:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 36%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.