Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4974
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 4974 · BWI → RSW
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 8:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/28 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 36%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at RSW that day
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.