WN 4991 · MCO → LAX

took off 6:38 PM ET · landed 8:47 PM PT (scheduled 6:23 PM ET → 8:39 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4991 · MCO → LAX

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAX?