Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 561 · MSP → BWI
departs 3:00 PM CT · arrives 6:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
3pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.19 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.