WN 880 · HOU → SJD

took off 9:36 AM CT · expected to land 9:52 AM MST (scheduled 9:31 AM CT → 10:05 AM MST)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJD more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJD?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SJD that day

↑ HOU is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ 9am departures from HOU are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

SJD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 880 · HOU → SJD

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJD?