Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
XL 315 · MIA → UIO
departs 5:51 PM ET · arrives 9:10 PM -05
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at UIO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to UIO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
5pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 8.8 mi Precip 0.03 in
UIO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.