Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
Y4 730 · MEX → IAH
departs 4:11 PM CST · arrives 7:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MEX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.