Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 730 · MEX → IAH
departs 4:10 PM CST · arrives 7:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
Weather at each end
MEX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.