Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 780
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
Y4 780 · MEX → MCO
departs 11:06 AM CST · arrives 4:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MEX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.