Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 780
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 780 · MEX → MCO
departs 11:05 AM CST · arrives 4:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MEX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.