Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6189 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

YV 6189 · JAX → IAD

departs 7:16 PM ET · arrives 9:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6189 · JAX → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?