Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6273 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

YV 6273 · SBN → IAD

departs 10:11 AM ET · arrives 12:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10am departures from SBN are often late

↑ YV's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6273 · SBN → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?