YX 4395 · LGA → DSM

departs 7:32 PM ET · arrives 9:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4395 · LGA → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?