Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4395
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4395 · LGA → DSM
departs 7:30 PM ET · arrives 9:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 43%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
DSM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.