Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 4461 · DCA → EYW
departs 10:20 AM ET · arrives 1:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at EYW that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
EYW (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.