Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4657
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 4657 · DCA → HSV
departs 8:06 PM ET · arrives 9:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30 28%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
HSV (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.