Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4746
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 4746 · ORD → MSP
departs 4:01 PM CT · arrives 5:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
4pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.