Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5713
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
YX 5713 · DCA → JFK
departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 45%
Sat 10/31 35%
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.